Controlled Retaliation

Saudi Arabia responds with limited strikes on Iranian drone and missile nodes while Washington uses the USS Theodore Roosevelt and Marines as visible deterrence. This is the most likely path because Riyadh needs to answer the loss of a high-value ISR asset but still has strong incentives to avoid direct attacks on Iranian oil or population centers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.