Possible scenario
Limited Strike Authorized
27% Chance
The White House approves a narrow strike package against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, likely coordinated with Israel and framed as a non-regime-change operation. The most likely military path is a short campaign intended to degrade enrichment capacity while avoiding major Iranian command centers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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