Possible scenario
Iran Retaliates Regionally
20% Chance
Iran or aligned militias respond before or after a U.S. strike by targeting Israel, U.S. bases, shipping, or Gulf energy infrastructure. This path carries the largest immediate market risk because it threatens oil flows and U.S. personnel.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +8.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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