Possible scenario
Diplomacy Delays Strike
38% Chance
Washington uses the strike-plan leak as coercive leverage rather than an immediate trigger. Oman, Qatar, and European governments push Tehran back toward inspections or a freeze to avoid U.S. military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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