Possible scenario
Project Standoff Deepens
30% Chance
Musk refuses to cede meaningful operating authority, while TSMC insists it cannot be accountable for yield, technology protection and subsidy compliance without direct control. The dispute causes schedule slippage and raises doubts about whether the Texas site can qualify for the targeted incentives on the original timetable.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- TSLA-2.6%
- TSM-1.9%
- SPCX-1.2%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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