Possible scenario
Musk Finds Alternative
15% Chance
Musk’s companies look for another path rather than accept TSMC’s operating demands. This could mean recruiting Samsung or Intel as a foundry partner, or attempting a more vertically integrated model that preserves Musk control but adds execution risk.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- TSM-2.1%
- TSLA-0.7%
- SPCX-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.