Possible scenario
Limited Records Review
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the subpoena is part of a narrow records review into travel, event, or donor-entertainment spending by a Ruben Gallego-aligned PAC. DOJ obtains invoices, reimbursement records, and communications but does not immediately allege criminal conduct.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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