Possible scenario
Criminal Probe Escalates
18% Chance
A less likely but higher-stakes scenario is that prosecutors view the Disneyland records as one piece of a broader inquiry into false filings, straw-donor activity, or conversion of PAC funds. This would create significant political risk for Gallego but still limited financial-market implications.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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