Possible scenario
Civil Enforcement Path
25% Chance
DOJ may determine that the facts are better handled as a campaign-finance compliance matter rather than a criminal case. The Federal Election Commission or House/Senate ethics staff could examine whether PAC funds were used for personal-benefit expenses.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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