Possible scenario
Trade Fight Escalates
25% Chance
Canada responds forcefully, arguing that the U.S. measures violate USMCA and are designed to coerce Canadian auto policy. Retaliation would raise costs for North American automakers and deepen uncertainty around the 2026 USMCA auto rules dispute.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.9%
- Industrials -2.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.2%
Tickers
- STLA-4.3%
- GMM.USD-4.2%
- F-3.7%
- -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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