Targeted Ban Holds

The most likely path is that Washington applies the new import bans narrowly, focusing on vehicles and components it argues are linked to Chinese EV platforms or batteries routed through Canada. The administration uses the low U.S. automaker share in Canada as political justification while avoiding a full rupture of North American auto supply chains.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.