Possible scenario
Rates Stay Extreme
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued vessel scarcity without a decisive military or diplomatic resolution. Owners demand war-risk premiums, insurers restrict coverage, and Asian buyers compete for a small pool of acceptable ships while Saudi Arabia leans harder on the East-West pipeline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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