Possible scenario
Attacks Escalate
20% Chance
A further strike on a tanker or a direct clash involving Iranian forces would turn the freight-rate story into a broader energy-security shock. Markets would price a higher probability of sustained Gulf export disruption, pushing oil and volatility higher while pressuring credit and transport-linked equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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