Possible scenario
War Continues
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the failed Senate vote leaves the administration's Iran campaign legally and politically intact for now. Hegseth impeachment talk grows louder, but Republican senators largely hold the line against binding war-powers constraints.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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