Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
20% Chance
Iran or aligned militias respond to renewed U.S. bombing with attacks on U.S. facilities, Gulf shipping, or Israeli targets. This is less likely than a contained campaign, but the existing war timeline and failed Senate off-ramp make escalation a material risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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