Possible scenario
Congressional Pressure Builds
25% Chance
The narrow 49-50 Senate failure encourages Democrats and a small group of anti-war Republicans to escalate oversight of Hegseth and the Iran campaign. The White House keeps operational control, but hearings, subpoenas, and funding amendments begin to constrain the political room for escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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