Possible scenario
Unrest Escalates Further
18% Chance
The riots intensify while Macron is abroad, forcing a wider security response and a sharper political backlash in Paris. This becomes a material France-specific political risk event, though still well below a systemic European crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.