Possible scenario
Tour Proceeds Smoothly
45% Chance
Macron keeps the Gulf itinerary intact while Prime Ministerial curfews and police deployments reduce the immediate intensity of unrest in France. Kuwait and other Gulf hosts treat the riots as a domestic security problem rather than a reason to downgrade diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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