Possible scenario
Tour Cut Short
25% Chance
Macron shortens the Gulf tour and returns to Paris after renewed clashes strain the government’s claim that curfews are working. Diplomacy continues through ministers, but the political signal is that the unrest now has priority over foreign economic outreach.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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