Possible scenario
Prolonged Hybrid Campaign
30% Chance
Belarus sustains the balloon pressure campaign to test Lithuanian readiness and impose economic and psychological costs. The pattern resembles earlier migrant weaponization episodes: disruptive, deniable, and calibrated to avoid a direct NATO military response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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