Possible scenario
Open-Weight Adoption Wave
42% Chance
StepFun releases Step 5 weights on Oct. 15 as promised, and early developer testing broadly confirms the preview claims against Kimi K3. The most likely path is a rapid pickup among Chinese startups, agent platforms, and cost-sensitive enterprise teams already moving toward open Chinese models.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.