Possible scenario
Benchmark Skepticism Emerges
18% Chance
The preview numbers prove harder to reproduce once independent evaluators test Step 5 across coding, tool use, and longer-context tasks. Developers still watch the Oct. 15 release, but the market reaction shifts from disruption to wait-and-see caution.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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