Possible scenario
IAEA Access Curtailed
28% Chance
Iran stops short of formal NPT withdrawal but meaningfully reduces IAEA access to damaged or rebuilt nuclear facilities. This is a likely intermediate step because it raises pressure while preserving deniability and some diplomatic optionality.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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