Possible scenario
Diplomatic Brinkmanship Continues
35% Chance
Tehran uses the NPT threat mainly as leverage after the US-Israel attacks, while avoiding the immediate legal and sanctions costs of withdrawal. The government keeps public pressure on the IAEA but leaves room for Oman, Qatar, China, and Russia to mediate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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