Possible scenario
Hobbs Wins Narrowly
25% Chance
The race tightens as Republican voters consolidate behind Biggs and national GOP groups increase spending in the final weeks. Hobbs still benefits from incumbency, abortion politics, and Biggs' polarizing record, but the final margin is far closer than the new poll suggests.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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