Possible scenario
Hobbs Wins Comfortably
45% Chance
Katie Hobbs converts the 16-point polling lead into a durable advantage by keeping suburban independents and abortion-rights voters aligned with her campaign. Andy Biggs struggles to broaden his appeal beyond the conservative base because Democrats keep tying him to the 2020 certification fight and Arizona's 1864 abortion ban debate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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