Possible scenario
European Security Track
22% Chance
Excluded allies respond by accelerating the European-led security framework Macron promoted in September 2025. The result is not a formal split from NATO, but it increases pressure for European procurement, financing and command arrangements outside U.S.-controlled channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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