Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Crisis
40% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a US-led maritime security response that avoids immediate strikes on Iranian territory. Tankers keep moving only under naval escort, insurance costs jump, and energy markets price a persistent but not total disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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