Possible scenario
Diplomatic Partial Reopening
20% Chance
Iran uses the televised mine footage as leverage but leaves room for a negotiated off-ramp. A partial navigation corridor, mine-clearance mechanism, or pause in attacks would cut the immediate oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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