Possible scenario
China Applies Pressure
30% Chance
China is likely to answer more visible U.S. missile activity with military signaling, diplomatic protests, and gray-zone pressure rather than direct confrontation. This keeps tensions elevated around the South China Sea while staying below the threshold of armed conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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