Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
25% Chance
A breakdown over inspection access or enrichment levels leads Washington or Israel to conduct a limited strike or sabotage operation against Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Iran responds in a calibrated way to preserve deterrence without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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