Possible scenario
Armed Nuclear Standoff
45% Chance
Iran’s hardened defenses, public mobilization campaign and dispersed nuclear assets deter an immediate U.S. or Israeli strike. Washington keeps military options visible but relies mainly on sanctions, intelligence collection and cyber pressure while Oman and Qatar keep channels open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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