Possible scenario
Partial Funding Restored
45% Chance
Congressional limits are treated as an opening position rather than a final rejection of missile replenishment. Defense hawks, appropriators, and the Pentagon negotiate a smaller but still meaningful add-on tied to Ukraine, Israel, Indo-Pacific readiness, and industrial-base contracts.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.7%
- LMT+0.5%
- NOC+0.4%
- GD+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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