Possible scenario
Cap Holds Firm
25% Chance
Fiscal conservatives and deficit-focused lawmakers block most of the Pentagon's supplemental request. The result slows the planned production ramp for air-defense and precision-strike inventories despite contractor capacity agreements signed earlier in 2026.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.2%
Tickers
- RTX-2.8%
- LMT-2.4%
- NOC-1.6%
- BA-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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