Possible scenario
Limited MOAB Strike
37% Chance
Trump authorizes a narrowly scoped conventional strike using the MOAB or comparable large conventional ordnance against a hardened Iranian nuclear or command facility. The White House keeps the operation air-only and frames it as enforcing red lines without pursuing occupation or regime change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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