Possible scenario
Iran Escalates First
22% Chance
Tehran or aligned militias try to deter a U.S. strike by raising the cost before Washington acts. This path is less likely than a controlled U.S. strike or delay, but Iran has already attacked U.S. forces with missiles in the timeline, making renewed retaliation credible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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