Possible scenario
Quiet Security Bloc
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is limited, deniable security coordination between Israel and Gulf states that still avoid formal diplomatic recognition. Shared concern over Iran's missile, drone and proxy networks outweighs political discomfort with open normalization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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