Possible scenario
Gulf Fragility Returns
20% Chance
A less likely but important outcome is that Iran or Iran-aligned forces test the reduced U.S. mine-countermeasure presence in the Gulf. Even without a confirmed new minefield, harassment or suspicious objects near key lanes would quickly revive the Hormuz risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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