Possible scenario
Democratic Wave
17% Chance
A stronger anti-Trump midterm forms if the president's approval remains in the mid-30s and the Inside Elections shifts are followed by similar moves from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Democrats not only take the Senate but win at least one additional Republican-held state beyond the minimum path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Finance -1.7%
- Healthcare -1.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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