Possible scenario
Democratic Narrow Control
40% Chance
The most likely Democratic-favorable outcome is a narrow Senate takeover driven by a weak national environment for Republicans, Trump approval near 34%, and repeated ratings moves toward Democrats. The path depends on Democrats holding Jon Ossoff's Georgia seat while converting Republican-held seats such as North Carolina, Maine, Texas, and Alaska.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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