Possible scenario
Enforcement Widens
38% Chance
The most likely path is a broader DOJ, FBI and IRS-CI investigation into laptop farms, stolen identities and payment channels used by North Korean IT workers. Prosecutors identify additional U.S.-based facilitators and issue more seizure warrants, but the case remains an enforcement and compliance event rather than a broad market shock.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- FA+1.3%
- CRWD+0.8%
- OKTA+0.7%
- PANW+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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