Possible scenario
Race Stays Deadlocked
21% Chance
Abbott’s cash advantage and Hinojosa’s polling strength offset each other, creating a genuinely competitive final month. Neither campaign achieves a durable breakaway, and outside groups treat Texas as a late-cycle battleground.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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