Possible scenario
Taiz Siege Stalemates
38% Chance
The most likely path is a grinding stalemate: the Houthis keep pressure around Taiz while Saudi-backed and Yemeni government-aligned forces fail to reopen the Taiz-Aden road quickly. Fighting remains intense locally but does not immediately close Bab al-Mandeb or materially disrupt Gulf oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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