Possible scenario
Saudi Counteroffensive Resumes
27% Chance
Riyadh and allied Yemeni forces try to recover momentum by reinforcing the Red Sea coast axis and applying airpower against Houthi supply lines. This could partially reopen pressure on Bab al-Mandeb, but success is uncertain because the offensive has already stalled near Dhubab.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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