Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation Widens
21% Chance
The Houthis could leverage their battlefield momentum by expanding missile, drone, or maritime threats against Saudi territory and Red Sea shipping. This is less likely than a local stalemate but would carry the largest near-term market effect because Bab al-Mandeb is a key energy and container route.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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