Possible scenario
Blakeman Upsets Hochul
15% Chance
Despite trailing by 11 points in the Marist poll, Bruce Blakeman benefits from a late Republican surge and depressed Democratic turnout. This would be a significant state-level political upset, though still not large enough to create broad national market stress.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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