Possible scenario
Talarico Contains Fallout
30% Chance
Talarico's campaign avoids a lasting collapse by narrowing its argument from 'fake AI video' to misleading editing and political context. This outcome is plausible because the initial poll lead was narrow, but Paxton remains a polarizing figure with his own legal and ethical liabilities.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.