Pause Narrative Returns

A clearer disinflation trend revives the view that the Fed is near the end of the cycle, despite Paulson’s insistence on more progress before cuts. This is less likely than continued hawkishness, but the recent hesitation from Williams leaves room for a pause if the data cooperate.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.