Possible scenario
Hikes Remain Base Case
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Paulson, Williams and a majority of the FOMC keep policy biased toward another 25 bp increase, consistent with the September projections. Inflation remains too high for officials to validate rate cuts, while labor-market softness is not yet severe enough to change priorities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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