Possible scenario
Data Delays Action
30% Chance
Officials keep a hawkish tone but avoid committing to an immediate move, leaving the next decision dependent on CPI, PCE and payroll data. This scenario is plausible because Williams has already said the case for another hike was not firm, even as most officials projected further tightening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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